The wild-card round has come and gone, and we’re down to eight teams as we head into the divisional round.
The weekend begins with the Houston Texans on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs and closes with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
Three of the four games are regular-season rematches, with the only new showdown featuring the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders.
Below, you’ll find my picks against the spread and for the over/under using lines from the BetMGM sportsbook.
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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Although Texans wide receiver Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury when these teams played in Week 16, he had 98 yards and a touchdown before going down.
Without him, Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie can zero in on Texans No. 1 WR Nico Collins. This could cause Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to repeat his multi-interception performance during the team’s 27-19 loss in December.
As for the ground game, Texans running back Joe Mixon conjured just 57 yards against the Chiefs last time, and there’s nothing to suggest that’ll change.
SPREAD PICK: Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
This total is quite low at 41.5, but I’m still taking the under. The Texans scored 32 last week, but that came off numerous Los Angeles Chargers turnovers. They’ll face a stout Chiefs defence that can corral Collins and Mixon. The Chiefs win 24-14.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 41.5 (-105)
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Both defences stop one element of opposing offences well. The Lions allow 98.4 rushing yards (fifth) per game, while the Commanders give up 189.5 passing yards (third) per game. I expect the Lions to win, especially with David Montgomery coming back. The Commanders are poor against the run, allowing 137.5 yards per game (30th). Still, I’ll take the 9.5 points, considering how well Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is playing lately.
SPREAD PICK: Commanders +9.5 (-110)
This is a monstrous total at 55.5 points, so part of me choosing the under is simply because of how daunting the line is. Further, the Commanders played a similar team statistically in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week (good against the run, allowing a lot of production in the passing game) and put up 23 points. Lions win 31-24, coming in just under the line.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 55.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
These teams played earlier this season, and the Eagles won 37-20. Rams QB Matthew Stafford was pressured on 31 per cent of his dropbacks in that game and completed just one pass for eight yards. The Eagles are without Nakobe Dean and Brandon Graham, but there’s still plenty of pass-rushing talent. Additionally, the Eagles also allow the least passing yards per game (174.2). I’ll side with the Eagles -6.
SPREAD PICK: Eagles -6 (-110)
I see many scenarios where the over occurs. The Eagles do have an excellent pass rush, but the Rams’ offensive line has stepped up massively. Stafford is excellent when he’s kept clean in the pocket with a 19:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As for the Eagles, RB Saquon Barkley put up 255 yards and two touchdowns against them last time, and both top receivers, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, are healthy.
OVER/UNDER PICK: OVER 44 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
The Ravens pass defence has been excellent since Week 10. It allowed 270 yards to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Bills don’t have a receiver like George Pickens. This game is a time-of-possession battle. The Bills had some defensive injuries in their Week 4 matchup, and RB Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards. He, alongside QB Lamar Jackson, will keep drives alive and Bills QB Josh Allen off the field.
SPREAD PICK: Ravens -1 (-110)
Yes, this game has the top two MVP favourites, but I expect a lower-scoring affair. The Bills have stepped up recently in run defence against RBs, holding all teams to four yards per carry or less in all but one game since Week 13. Meanwhile, the Ravens pass defence has allowed just 199 passing yards per game since Week 10. Sticking with 23-20.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 51.5 (-110)
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