Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis is the fourth middleweight headliner of the year and fourth rematch that has been featured in a main event slot, and it already marks the seventh time the organization has held an event at its home base at the UFC Apex in 2024.
In addition to those two ranked 185-pounders meeting for the second time, the card has a handful of rising talents including Ignacio Bahamondes, plus fight fans will see the return of inaugural women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie as she ends a nearly four-year hiatus and returns to the bantamweight division.
A whopping four fighters missed weight ahead of Saturday’s event.
A scheduled strawweight bout between Cynthia Calvillo and Piera Rodriguez was removed from the card after Calvillo, who has lost five consecutive fights, missed weight for the third time in her UFC career.
Alexander Hernandez missed the featherweight limit by four pounds on his initial attempt before losing an additional 2.5 pounds. He still ended up 1.5 pounds overweight for his co-main event matchup with Damon Jackson. Hernandez forfeits 20 per cent of his purse but this bout will go on as planned. Also, Nora Cornolle vs. Melissa Mullins will happen despite both missing weight ahead of their scheduled bantamweight bout; Mullins missed by two pounds and Cornolle by 2.5. Keep in mind I messed up the parlay again last week so it’s entirely possible I’m mushing Hernandez here.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 fight card and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
— Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
— Morgan Charrière vs. Jose Mariscal
— Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos
— Valter Walker vs. Łucasz Brzeski
— Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
— Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie
— Pedro Falcão vs. Victor Hugo
— Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
— Dylan Budka vs. César Almeida
— Nora Cornolle vs. Melissa Mullins
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell does not go the distance -450 (BetOnline)
Both Campbell and Peek are known finishers with solid power and finishing instincts. I expect that this fight will be an absolute barnburner and I would be surprised to see it reach the final bell.
Dan: Ignacio Bahamondes to win outright -335 (Unibet)
Both Bahamondes and Christos Giagos are coming off losses. Giagos has lost three of his last four bouts, albeit against quality opposition, but I think he will have a tough time overcoming the reach advantage of “La Juala” and seeds of self-doubt could start to creep in early here. If Bahamondes doesn’t win inside the distance, he should be able to win on cards due to damage inflicted during stand-up exchanges.
Mike: Alex Morono to win outright -290 (DraftKings)
Court McGee, 39, has an admirable career despite his below-.500 10-11 UFC record that includes a 2013 split decision win over Robert Whittaker, but he should have his hands full with Morono, 33, who has flown under the radar for much of his UFC tenure. I trust the younger fighter will boast an advantage with his speed and will be able to keep this matchup on the feet long enough to find the finish or win at least two of three rounds.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +113 (to win $113.42)
2024 Record: 4-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$191.73
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Alex Morono vs. Court McGee Fight Starts Round 3 -168 (FanDuel)
While McGee’s durability has started to wane during his veteran years, I expect that this fight goes the distance more often than not, but at a less than two-to-one favourite price, I like the value on the fight to begin round three. I expect this to be a closely contested, back-and-forth fight that takes place predominantly on the feet.
Dan: Morgan Charriere -115 (Caesars)
I originally had Piera Rodriguez here but with that bout being scrapped, I’m going with “The Last Pirate” instead. Charriere is coming off an impressive KO win in his UFC debut over Manolo Zecchini. Take nothing away from Chepe Mariscal, who is 2-0 in the UFC but could struggle to defend against what appears to be a more tactical striker with lethal kicks and a very good grappling game. At -115 on the money line… shiver me timbers!
Mike: Brendan Allen to win by Submission or Points -165 (FanDuel)
There’s a dearth of usable favourites for this card that I like so I’m removing the possibility of an Allen KO/TKO win to meet the criteria here. I do like Allen in the rematch as the younger fighter with a size and grappling advantage. He has made the more noticeable improvements since these two first met in December of 2021. Leaning on his excellent grappling is his clearest path to victory against a skilled defensive fighter like Curtis who rolls with punches nicely in his shell and has walloping KO power when he finds the chin. If Allen has his striking defence in order, I like him to defend his No. 6 spot in the middleweight rankings.
Aaron’s favourite record: 6-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$114.95
Dan’s favourite record: 7-4
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$33.47
Mike’s favourite record: 4-7
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$451.46
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Germaine de Randamie +130 (DraftKings)
Coming back after more than three years away, taking de Randamie here is a bit of a wildcard, but I think that her striking is going to give Dumont fits. Dumont has not successfully made the cut to bantamweight in the UFC and I expect it to be a difficult one. If she wins that battle, she will then have to face one of the most credentialed strikers in women’s bantamweight history.
Dan: Germaine de Randamie +130 (BetWay)
I’m surprised the former featherweight champion is the betting underdog here. Yes, it’s been almost four years since she competed inside the octagon. But her track record speaks for itself. She holds wins over the likes of Julianna Pena, Raquel Pennington and Holly Holm. You think she forgot how to win? At plus money, it’s worth finding out.
Mike: Trevor Peek +155 (Bodog)
I’m a fan of watching Peek compete and selecting him as a dog just feels right because he is exactly that…a dog. Peek will be at a height and reach disadvantage yet I can see him being the more aggressive and more powerful fighter overall. He should have just as good a shot at finding the knockout as his opponent and, if the fight doesn’t end quickly, I also think Peek could spend plenty of time leaning on Charlie Campbell after spamming right hands and eating up minutes in control positions along the fence.
Aaron’s underdog record: 6-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$376
Dan’s underdog record: 3-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$395
Mike’s underdog record: 6-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$257
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Trevor Peek wins by Round 1 KO/TKO +500 (BetOnline)
Peek is known to throw the kitchen sink at his opponent and with the majority of his victories coming by first round KO/TKO, I will follow that trend against Campbell, who lost by that method on the Dana White Contender Series against Chris Duncan, who does not possess as much power as Peek.
Dan: Brendan Allen win in Round 3 or 4 +525 (BetRivers)
I don’t love this pick, but it’s certainly not an impossibility. I don’t see this one going five rounds given Curtis’s KO power and Allen’s submission skills. “All in” has looked a different fighter since the last time these two met, going 5-0 at middleweight with four stoppages by RNC. I think it’s unlikely he gets caught by Curtis again and finds a way to stop the “Action Man” who should begin to tire as this one drags on.
Mike: Germaine de Randamie by KO/TKO/DQ +500 (Betway)
The former champ is the much more dangerous striker here so despite her age and the lengthy layoff I don’t mind taking a shot at these odds – especially since I don’t have to pinpoint a specific round. If GDR can keep this fight on the feet, she is far and away the best striker Norma Dumont has faced thus far in her career.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-9-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$400
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300
Mike’s dart throw record: 3-7-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,400
(Betting odds above subject to change prior to fights)
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