We’re past the halfway point of the NFL season, which means the stretch run is about to open up. For some clubs, keeping a steady pace is all that’s needed to clinch a spot in the coming weeks. Others, though, should be prepared for a full-on sprint starting this Sunday.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ victory over the upstart Washington Commanders in Thursday’s showdown atop the NFC East delivered the drama and plenty of important playoff implications, too.
Now, as we look ahead to the rest of the Week 11 slate, we’re zooming in on a bunch of four-win squads sitting just outside the playoff picture — plus a three-win team we admittedly just cannot seem to look away from — to identify potential paths into the post-season, however unlikely some of them might be.
NOTE: Teams are listed within each conference by their current playoff odds, not their place in the standings.
(*Indicates upcoming opponent currently in a playoff spot.)
AFC
Current AFC playoff seeds: 1. Chiefs (9-0), 2. Bills (8-2), 3. Steelers (7-2), 4. Texans (6-4), 5. Ravens (7-3), Chargers (6-3), Broncos (5-5)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 26 per cent
Even though they sit one slot behind the Colts in the standings, Cincinnati’s odds of a post-season berth are the highest of all non-playoff AFC squads. That’s based primarily on remaining opponents and division outlook, of course, but it’s also quite fitting. Where other teams might get the benefit of the doubt, the Bengals get an extra dose considering Joe Burrow’s earned a reputation for starting slow and sparking wild runs down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Cincinnati’s remaining opponents: @ Chargers*, Week 12 bye, vs. Steelers*, @ Cowboys, @ Titans, vs. Browns (TNF), vs. Broncos*, @ Steelers*
The Bengals’ slate of opponents brings several challenges, sure, but it also brings the potential for big swings in playoff odds. A win Sunday night against the Chargers, currently sixth in the AFC, would see Cincinnati’s post-season percentage jump up to 39 per cent. Maintain a strong pace, and they’ll have another chance to leapfrog a fellow wild card contender in Denver in Week 17. Even a pair of upcoming divisional battles against Pittsburgh could bring a silver lining, despite what will be a tall order to defeat the current AFC North leaders — twice. While the division crown is all but officially out of reach, there’s still ground to be gained, especially if the Ravens — who already swept their season series against Cincinnati — can hand Pittsburgh a loss this Sunday to take over the divisional lead.
A loss this Sunday against L.A. brings a major dip in playoff odds, down to just 14 per cent.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 22 per cent
Despite suffering three straight losses, the Colts can still very much be in control here — as long as they don’t extend that losing streak to four. The Colts have the second easiest remaining strength of schedule, and two of those matchups — Sunday’s bout with the Jets and a Week 15 date in Denver — represent two of the more winnable games with plenty of reward at stake considering both squads could stand in Indy’s way down the stretch.
Indianapolis’ remaining opponents: @ Jets, vs. Lions*, @ Patriots, Week 14 bye, @ Broncos*, vs. Titans, @ Giants, vs. Jaguars
Their toughest remaining opponent is a doozy — they take on the NFC-leading Detroit Lions in Week 12 — but the fact it’s a non-conference game works in their favour as far as playoff odds go.
So, uh, who will be starting these important matchups? Make the wrong call, and your playoff odds could drastically sink with the rest of the season. A loss this Sunday in New York means a drop in playoff probability down to 12 per cent.
NEW YORK JETS (3-7) | Current playoff odds: 14 per cent
There’s a reason the Jets are the lone three-win squad on this list despite the fact they sit below their divisional foes in Miami in the AFC playoff picture. While both teams have just a trio of wins to their names, there’s a bigger reward awaiting New York if they can notch a fourth win this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. A bounce-back win at home could see Gang Green leapfrog the Colts, currently eighth in the AFC, in playoff odds. (Miami, meanwhile, has an easier schedule but less leverage in terms of being able to take down other teams in the hunt.)
New York’s remaining opponents: vs. Colts, Week 12 bye, vs. Seahawks, @ Dolphins, @ Jaguars, vs. Rams, @ Bills*, vs. Dolphins
If Aaron Rogers & Co. can beat the Colts, they can stay in this race with a 20 per cent playoff probably, and be plenty interested in Sunday night’s showdown between the Bengals and Chargers. That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, because a loss this Sunday means a lost season in New York.
NFC
Current NFC playoff seeds: 1. Lions (8-1), 2. Eagles (8-2), 3. Falcons (6-4), 4. Cardinals (6-4), 5. Vikings (7-2), 6. Packers (6-3), 7. Commanders (7-4)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-6) | Current playoff odds: 37 per cent
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing their best football right now, with Baker Mayfield doing everything in his power to will this team forward — including holding off Nick Bosa with one arm and throwing a crucial third-down conversion with the other — but the results simply aren’t swinging their way. Back-to-back last-second losses to the Chiefs and 49ers, respectively, points to a team that’s better than its record indicates.
There’s a reason Baker’s Bucs still have a 36 per cent chance of making the playoffs despite currently ranking 12th in the NFC standings — they’ve got the NFL’s schedule-makers to thank for that, with an opportunity to right some wrongs down the stretch.
Tampa Bay’s remaining opponents: Week 11 bye, @ Giants, @ Panthers, vs. Raiders, @ Chargers*, @ Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
The Buccaneers have the easiest remaining schedule based on strength of opponents. Following a much-needed Week 11 bye to rest up, Tampa Bay faces a string of winnable games. Only one of their upcoming opponents currently has a winning record, making their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers a key measuring-stick game for a club that could be a bit healthier by then.
Despite the NFC South once again being a very winnable division, the Buccaneers’ 0-2 record against the Atlanta Falcons this year will likely come back to haunt them — perhaps even more than the string of injuries they’ve suffered on offence. The 6-4 Falcons are hitting their stride, and any hopes of the Buccaneers being able to catch them atop the division requires a major stumble down the stretch.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 11 per cent
Even though San Francisco (5-4) is currently on the outside looking in, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before the 49ers are back in the playoff picture — while they can’t quite make the leap this Sunday, a win over the Seattle Seahawks would see them leapfrog the division-leading Cardinals in terms of overall playoff odds, jumping up to 65 per cent. (The Cardinals stand pat atop the NFC West while on bye with a 59 per cent chance of making the playoffs.)
Arizona’s Week 5 win over San Francisco means they’ll maintain their spot atop the division for at least one more week regardless of Sunday’s outcome, but can only watch as the 49ers and Seahawks fight to turn up the heat in this intriguing division. The outcome of Sunday’s 49ers-Seahawks bout could greatly influence the divisional outlook. The climb back into the post-season is significantly steeper for Seattle, and it pretty much has to begin with a win over the 49ers. A loss would see their playoff odds dip all the way down to six per cent. A win hikes it to 23.
Seattle’s remaining opponents: @ 49ers, vs. Cardinals*, @ Jets, @ Cardinals*, vs. Packers*, vs. Vikings*, @ Bears (TNF), @ Rams
The Seahawks’ upcoming schedule is a study in high-risk, high-reward. Seven of their remaining eight games are against NFC foes, six of whom (including two dates with the Cardinals) are currently ahead of Seattle in the playoff picture. Can they leapfrog their way into relevance?
LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 11 per cent
Monday’s loss to the Miami Dolphins was a major missed opportunity for the Rams, who’d gained some much-needed momentum ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline. Can they build on it? A get-right game in New England feels like a good place to start, but their remaining schedule isn’t necessarily conducive to building momentum.
L.A.’s remaining opponents: @ Patriots, vs. Eagles*, @ Saints, vs. Bills*, @ 49ers (TNF), @ Jets, vs. Cardinals*, vs. Seahawks
Even going .500 in their next four matchups — an entirely reasonable request — en route to a mid-December Thursday night date in San Francisco could potentially make things really interesting, if the 49ers stumble. The Rams already defeated the 49ers earlier this season, and sweeping the series gives L.A. leverage if the NFC West standings stay as tight as they are.
The Rams finish the season with divisional matchups against Arizona, then Seattle, respectively — stay in the mix until then, and we could have some fireworks in the NFL’s most intriguing division.
CHICAGO BEARS (4-5) | Current playoff odds: 2 per cent
Let’s be honest — while their record doesn’t look so bad on paper, there isn’t much of a silver lining here, considering the difficult path ahead. Things were starting to look up for the Bears, who entered their Week 7 bye on a three-game win streak that saw top pick Caleb Williams starting to hit his stride, but any emerging momentum was swiftly derailed by one wild Hail Mary pass launched from the powerful arm of Jayden Daniels.
Surely, there were cracks in the foundation already, but it’s as though that single play broke the Bears — in back-to-back losses since that defensive misplay for the ages, Chicago has been outscored by a combined 48-12, including last week’s miserable three-point outing against the rebuilding Patriots that has prompted plenty of chatter about whether it’s time to bench Williams.
Chicago’s remaining opponents: vs. Packers*, vs. Vikings*, @ Lions*, @ 49ers, @ Vikings*, vs. Lions*, vs. Seahawks (TNF), @ Packers*
Things are about to get messier. The Bears have yet to play a divisional game, with six of their final eight matchups now coming against NFC North rivals. If they have any hope of turning things around, it has to start Sunday with a win against the Packers — a team that’s defeated Chicago in 10 consecutive contests.
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