We are one month into the NHL season and one month away from the deadline for teams to submit rosters for the 4 Nations Face-Off. So let’s take a look at who is in contention to make Team Canada.
Canada has won the last three best-on-best tournaments and expectations are always high for these events. But a lot has changed since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey and the United States, Sweden and Finland are all opponents that should not be taken lightly.
So far this season 291 Canadian skaters and 18 goalies have appeared in the NHL, giving Canada the largest pool of players to draw from for the tournament. Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid and Brayden Point were named to the roster in June but plenty of players are still battling for the final spots.
We won’t truly know which direction Canada will decide to go until the roster is selected on Dec. 2, but we can certainly speculate on who has played their way into contention through the first four weeks of the season (and who has fallen off the pace with a slow start).
Statistics courtesy: NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.
Forwards
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Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
A speedy, playmaking winger, Marner is off to a hot start in his contract year with 11 points in 10 games. Marner can also be trusted away from the puck as he leads the NHL with 13 takeaways and averages 2:33 of shorthanded ice time per game.
Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights
Stone is tied for second in league scoring with 19 points in 11 games early in the season. Like Marner, the Golden Knights captain can contribute to both special teams and be trusted to slot in on any line.
Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
Cirelli might have an edge in the battle for the fourth-line centre role as he has been a reliable player under Team Canada head coach Jon Cooper since cracking the NHL full-time in 2018. While not the most physical, Cirelli is fast and can win faceoffs. Offensively, he is on pace to smash his previous best season with 12 points (10 assists) in 11 games so far this year.
Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets
Scheifele has been a reliable scorer in the league for a while now but his hot start this year — 14 points in 11 games — has him on pace to crack the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. On the first-place Jets Scheifele is the No. 1 centre, but on Team Canada Scheifele would be an option to move to the wing for some middle-six scoring.
Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers
Two forwards from the defending Stanley Cup champions are pushing for consideration for Team Canada.
Sam Reinhart is coming off a career year (57 goals, 94 points) and has a blazing-hot nine goals and 19 points in 12 games so far this season. He leads all Canadian skaters in goals and is tied with Stone and Makar for the most points. Reinhart is a great candidate for a top-six role on the national team and also has experience playing on both special teams.
Sam Bennett is right behind his teammate Reinhart with eight goals already, and 13 total points. He can play centre or wing and his physicality — 30 hits in 12 games — separates him from many of the other players on this list.
Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
Bedard is still only 19 but his skill is undeniable. His nine points in 10 games once again lead the rebuilding Blackhawks in scoring, but it’s exciting to think about what the reigning rookie of the year will do when paired with some of Team Canada’s brightest stars, especially on the power play.
Tom Wilson, Washington Capitals
Wilson is one of the tougher players in the NHL but with five goals already this season — and a 68 per cent expected goals rate — he’s been flashing his offensive talents early. At six-foot-four and 220 pounds, Wilson would be an option as a net-front player on the power play and would be an intimidating presence against any of Canada’s opponents.
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers
Konecny is coming off back-to-back 30-goal campaigns and is off to a good start this season with five goals and 10 points in 11 games. A bit undersized at five-foot-10, Konecny is one of a few players on this list in contention for a secondary-scoring role off the wing.
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Zach Hyman, Edmonton Oilers
Hyman is coming off a 50-goal campaign and his chemistry with McDavid would have made him almost a lock for Team Canada before the season started. But Hyman’s offence has all but dried up through the first month. He was held without a point for the first seven games and finally scored his first goal in game No. 11. Hyman has still been getting his chances with a 60 per cent expected goals rate, but he’ll need to start converting on those chances to lock up his spot on this roster.
Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Nashville Predators
The Predators have been one of the more disappointing teams early in the season and a big reason for that is the lack of scoring from their two big free-agent signings.
Stamkos and Marchessault both were coming off 40-goal campaigns before signing with Nashville. But so far through 10 games this year, Stamkos has one goal and two assists while Marchessault has just two goals and six points. Both players are in their mid-30s now and their slow starts should give pause to Team Canada management.
Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders
It’s easy to get excited about the idea of the speedy Barzal playing with McDavid or MacKinnon but not much has gone right for the Islanders star early in the season.
Barzal is generating a 60 per cent expected goals rate, but he has just two goals and five points (with none coming at five-on-five) in 10 games. Now he is recovering from an upper-body injury that will keep him out four-to-six weeks, and may not have time to show he deserves a spot on Team Canada.
Wyatt Johnston, Dallas Stars
Johnston is only 21 and already has an impressive resume, including 32 goals last season. So far this year, however, he has just one goal and five points in 10 games. Look for Johnston to become a fixture on future Team Canadas, but there are more productive players ahead of him on the depth chart this time around.
Defencemen
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Devon Toews, Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar is easily Canada’s most important defenceman but his partner in Colorado is an impact player, too. Toews and Makar have a 58.78 per cent expected goals rate in seven games, ranking 20th league-wide. Add in the fact that Toews shoots left-handed and plays both special teams, and he checks a lot of boxes for Team Canada.
Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers
Bouchard is an all-offence blueliner coming off a massive 80-point breakout campaign, thanks in part to a role on last year’s No. 1 power play. This year, the Oilers power play has gotten off to a slow start but Bouchard has seven points in 11 games while posting an impressive 59.07 expected goals rate.
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs
Rielly doesn’t bring a lot of size or physicality to the table but his skating and passing help him escape danger in his own zone. This season Rielly has six points in 11 games with a 54.19 expected goals rate, making him a candidate to provide some secondary offence from the left side.
Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils
Hamilton was limited to just 20 games last season due to a torn pectoral but he has returned to form early this year. The six-foot-six veteran has seven points in 14 games but what separates him from others competing for spots is that he contributes to both special teams.
Owen Power, Buffalo Sabres
The 2021 first-overall pick is on track to have a breakout season with nine points in 11 games so far, putting him on pace to double his previous career high (35, set two seasons ago). The six-foot-six left-shot defender doesn’t kill penalties but he makes a positive impact on the ice with a 54.19 expected goals rate. Power will be a big part of Team Canada rosters for years to come, regardless of whether or not he makes this team.
Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas Golden Knights
Pietrangelo, who will be 35 when the tournament begins, trails only Makar and Josh Morrissey in scoring among Canadian defencemen with 12 points. With two Stanley Cups and multiple tournament wins with Team Canada, he would be one of the most experienced players on Team Canada’s blue line if named to the team.
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Noah Dobson, New York Islanders
Dobson had a big breakout last season with 70 points, including 60 assists. With no goals and six assists in 11 games so far this season Dobson is slightly off last year’s pace but the six-foot-four right-shot defender continues to have a positive impact with a 54.19 expected goals rate on one of the lower-scoring teams in the league.
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets
Morrissey has had a productive start to the season as the No. 1 defenceman on the NHL’s top team. He has 11 assists and 13 points in 11 games this season, ranking third among all Canadian defencemen. However, compared to his peers, Morrissey’s play at five-on-five (a 42 per cent expected goals) is significantly lower and concerning as the stakes rise in a best-on-best tournament.
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
Theodore is also off to a fast start with nine points in 10 games but five of those points have come on the power play. At five-on-five, Theodore has not been as effective at keeping puck possession with a 41.36 expected goals percentage that will need to improve if he wants to push for this team.
MacKenzie Weegar, Calgary Flames
Weegar is coming off a 20-goal season for the rebuilding Flames. He has three goals and five points already this season but his expected goals rate of 41 per cent at five-on-five is low even as the Flames navigate a rebuild.
Goaltenders
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Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues
Binnington is the only Canadian starting goaltender who has a goals-against average below three, sitting at 2.98 through eight games. The 2019 Stanley Cup champion has an .896 save percentage which is low but still among the leaders for Canadian keepers early this season.
Sam Montembault, Montreal Canadiens
Montembault has been slowly developing in Montreal but has seized the full-time starter role this season. His .914 save percentage through six games was the best for a Canadian primary starter but allowing five goals on 10 shots to the Kraken in start No. 7 lowered it down to .891.
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Stuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers
After backstopping the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final, Skinner entered the season in pole position to start for Canada. He may still get the job, but for now, his .872 save percentage has him below Montembault and Binnington on the depth chart.
Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights
Like Skinner, Hill is a goalie with recent experience in the Stanley Cup Final but his start to this season has been a disaster. Hill started the season allowing 19 goals in five games but followed that up with a shutout win over the Flames in start No. 6. That shutout pushed his save percentage up from .864 to .878.
Roster Projection
Brayden Point-Connor McDavid-Mitch Marner
Sam Reinhart-Nathan MacKinnon-Mark Stone
Brad Marchand-Sidney Crosby-Connor Bedard
Sam Bennett-Anthony Cirelli-Mark Scheifele
Zach Hyman
Devon Toews-Cale Makar
Morgan Rielly-Evan Bouchard
Owen Power-Alex Pietrangelo
Drew Doughty*
Jordan Binnington
Sam Montembeault
Stuart Skinner
*Doughty has yet to play this season due to a broken ankle but is expected to return to the ice before the tournament begins.
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