When Alexander Volkanovski first beat Diego Lopes 10 months ago at UFC 314, the scorecards read: 49-46, 49-46, 48-47.
And what did the scorecards read as Volkanovski beat Lopes again in their rematch last Saturday at UFC 325? 49-46, 49-46, 50-45.
That tells you everything you need to know about the vast difference in skill and fight IQ between these two, not to mention Lopes’s inability to make meaningful between-fight adjustments. Despite being the younger, more powerful fighter getting his second crack at an aging great whose chin isn’t what it once was, Lopes was thoroughly outclassed on Saturday, losing his second title shot in less than a year even more thoroughly than his first.
There’s a reason many found the booking superfluous. And clearly, Volkanovski needs a stiffer challenge. The UFC can’t afford to spend any more time mucking around with forced opportunities for fatally flawed promotional favourites as Volkanovski approaches his 38th birthday this year. The two-time featherweight champion only has so much runway left and what remains of his Hall-of-Fame career should be spent on the most meaningful fights possible.
So, let’s assess the UFC’s 145-pound title picture and size up who could be next for Volkanovski as he tries to clear out a second generation of featherweights to cap his extraordinary, decade-long run.
The frontrunners: Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev
If the UFC chooses to proceed meritocratically, Volkanovski’s next opponent is straightforward: whichever of Lerone Murphy or Movsar Evloev emerges victorious from their main event clash at a Fight Night event in London, England on March 21.
Let’s start with Murphy, who will enjoy a massive ovation fighting before his home crowd at O2 Arena. Since an inauspicious 2019 UFC introduction, in which he fought to a split draw with Zubaira Tukhugov in a low-output, grapple-heavy affair, the 34-year-old has been unstoppable, rattling off nine straight victories while pushing his professional record to 17-0-1.
His striking’s clean and technical. He’s defensively sound, constantly managing distance and danger with slick footwork and movement. He has a vast arsenal of kicks that allow him to land from range. Fighting out of Manchester, the Leon Edwards comparisons can feel a little too on the nose.
That extends to the progression of the two Brits careers. Edwards waited forever to get his crack at Kamaru Usman and UFC’s welterweight championship, as the company overlooked him in favour of more marketable, finish-focused fighters. Murphy’s currently on that same path, padding his record with a string of unanimous decision victories while the heavy-handed Lopes fought for the title twice in nine months despite having only two-thirds the UFC wins that Murphy has.
And yet, in Evloev, we have a fighter who is not only even more deserving of a title shot than Murphy, but even less appealing in the entertainment-driven model of modern UFC matchmaking.
He’s 31, undefeated in 19 professional fights, and trained by one of the most renowned MMA gyms — Coconut Creek, Fla.’s American Top Team — in the world. He holds wins over Aljamain Sterling, the former bantamweight champion, and Lopes, who just fought for featherweight gold twice.
But Evloev’s a grappler through and through. His average fight time in the UFC is exactly 15 minutes because each of his nine victories since a 2019 debut have come via decision. He already ranks third all-time among UFC featherweights in takedowns landed and he’s spent nearly 40 per cent of his total Octagon time in top control.
Murphy at least has a recent knockout on his record, after walking off accomplished wrestler and Bellator veteran Aaron Pico at UFC 319 with a first-round spinning back elbow, providing exactly the kind of attention-grabbing, clippable moment his UFC run lacked.
Evloev’s never come close to finding himself on the wrong end of a highlight like that — but he’s never come close to being on the right end of one, either.
His game’s tremendously effective, built upon relentless pressure, fluid chain wrestling, and dominant positional control. But it’s difficult to craft a sizzle reel around trips, leg rides, and body locks that will attract MMA’s more casual audience to Evloev’s fights. Same goes for his understated personality, which produces forgettable, matter-of-fact moments on the mic.
March’s main event between these two will at least end one unbeaten streak and lay to rest any debate around who ought to be the featherweight division’s No. 1 contender. But if past is prologue, the fight’s likely to be a calculated, technical one that goes the distance. That outcome, no matter the winner, would leave the door open to the UFC going in a different direction booking Volkanovski’s next defence.
Particularly considering two other options on the 145-pound title periphery….
The dark horse: Jean Silva
The polar opposite of Evloev in terms of temperament and tactics, Jean Silva puts on fights that aren’t to be missed. Oft chaotic, at times emotionally unstable, and perpetually high energy, Silva enters the Octagon swaggering and barking before aggressively charging into the fire, throwing wild, explosive combinations with little concern for his own safety.
Often, his approach has produced unforgettable stoppages, such as his walk-off uppercut of Charles Jourdain, his gruesome battering of Drew Dober, and his neck-twisting ninja choke of Bryce Mitchell. But it’s also gotten him into trouble, like when he overextended against Lopes and ran into a spinning back elbow that flattened Silva just as he was on the verge of a title shot.
That’s the high-wire act Silva plays, and after crafting several more attention-grabbing displays — both inside and out of the cage — while bouncing back with a unanimous decision over Arnold Allen at UFC 325, the 29-year-old’s as relevant as ever.
Few ranked fighters are producing as much entertainment value these days as Silva. That’s precious currency in today’s UFC. And it’ll likely buy him a championship opportunity before long. Possibly sooner than later if the UFC wants to turn Volkanovski around quickly while Murphy and Evloev are already booked.
Of course, there’s always the nuclear option…
The wild card: Arman Tsarukyan
Locked out of a crowded lightweight title picture after his 11th-hour withdrawal from a championship fight against Islam Makhachev last January and weigh-in headbutt of Dan Hooker in November, Tsarukyan’s begun teasing a move down to featherweight where his path to gold could feature fewer obstacles.
Tsarukyan’s fought at 145 pounds only once, in 2017 on the Russian regional scene, and it’s unclear if he could still make the weight. While recently busying himself with side quests at various grappling events, he’s competed as high as 185 pounds. And even if he depleted himself down to featherweight once this year, it’s questionable how long he could sustain such dramatic cutting practices.
But if the 29-year-old does enter the featherweight fray, he’d be immediately inserted into the title conversation as a more-marketable fighter than Murphy and Evloev who’s been just as dominant. Tsarukan’s only losses in 24 fights since 2016 have come against Makhachev, the consensus pound-for-pound best in the sport, and Mateusz Gamrot in a back-and-forth five-rounder many believe he ought to have won.
Tsarukyan belongs at lightweight. But if all doors there remain closed, several tantalizing bookings exist only a steeper weight cut away. A featherweight bout against Silva would be fireworks and Tsarukyan’s one of the few high-ranked fighters in the sport whose grappling could match Evloev’s.
And if anyone’s going to jump the line and step directly into a championship opportunity opposite Volkanovski, it might as well be a guy who’s already earned a title shot a division up.
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