Corbin Burnes to the Arizona Diamondbacks? If you woke up on Saturday morning and were shocked to see that on your phone, you weren’t the only one.
The Diamondbacks already possess a strong rotation and were not linked to the right-hander all off-season. Nonetheless, the club bolstered its pitching staff with an early morning agreement with Burnes, the top starter on the market.
Like the recent Teoscar Hernandez signing, this transaction impacts other clubs around the league. The San Francisco Giants had been a rumoured frontrunner for Burnes, as were the Toronto Blue Jays, who’ve struggled to sign an impact free agent this off-season despite being reportedly pursuing several over the course of the last two months.
Here’s a breakdown of the Burnes deal and the waves it’s produced.
The deal:
Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks agree to a six-year, $210-million contract. The deal includes an opt-out after the 2026 season, according to reports.
The runners-up:
A wide array of teams had been linked to Burnes at the start of the off-season. However, when clubs such as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox added frontline starters, their interest in the right-hander began to wane, leaving the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants in a strong position to sign him.
The player:
Burnes entered the off-season primed to secure a big deal. Here at Sportsnet, we had the right-hander listed as the No. 1 hurler in our ranking of free-agent pitchers.
The Baltimore Orioles traded for Burnes last off-season and got the exact player they needed. The Southern California native posted a 2.92 ERA over 32 starts and 194.1 innings during the 2024 regular season, before delivering a dominant start in Game 1 of the wild-card series.
You could make the argument that Burnes is one of the best starters in the game. He captured the National League Cy Young award in 2021 and, over the past four campaigns, has averaged a 2.94 ERA and 3.08 FIP, as well as 31 starts and 189 innings. He’s as durable as it gets and, at 30 years old, figures to have several more years of elite production in his arm.
Burnes’s strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons, however, that didn’t appear to scare off interested clubs. His velocity has remained the same, his ability to limit hard contact is elite and Burnes’s cutter is a top-five pitch in MLB, according to Baseball Savant’s run value statistic.
The fit:
Nobody expected the Dbacks to land the top free-agent hurler simply because the club already has a bevy of starters, including Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Jordan Montgomery. Arizona finished third in the NL West with an 89-73 record in 2024, missing the playoffs one year after reaching the World Series.
The division remains strong with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres at the top, but the Diamondbacks appear to have set themselves up to remain a contender. The club lost Christian Walker to free agency but traded for fellow first baseman Josh Naylor. General manager Mike Hazen could conceivably boost his offence by dealing from his newfound starting pitching depth.
The Burnes signing carries additional intrigue for several reasons. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants and Blue Jays offered more money to Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post corroborated that, adding that the pitcher resides in the Phoenix area and chose to stay home.
For the Blue Jays, the inability to land Burnes adds even more pressure to a club that’s so far struck out on several reported free-agent pursuits, including that of Juan Soto and Max Fried. Coming off a last-place finish in an American League East that’s likely to grow even stronger in 2025, the Blue Jays are in the middle of a pivotal off-season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are in their final seasons before free agency and the club’s window of contention is largely tied to them.
Signing Soto, Burnes or Fried would’ve helped the Blue Jays force that window open but instead, the club currently features a weak offence and an aging starting rotation. Trading Spencer Horowitz in a deal for second baseman Andres Gimenez was a shrewd transaction, but it didn’t fully address the Blue Jays’ needs and didn’t serve to quell the angst of a fan base that has become increasingly frustrated.
There are a few impact free-agent hitters remaining — Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso — but it’ll be interesting to see what direction the Blue Jays go.
The market:
MLB Trade Rumors forecasted a seven-year, $200-million deal for Burnes. He didn’t end up receiving that term but did surpass the projected dollar total.
The next domino:
Now that Burnes has signed, the best available free-agent starter is Jack Flaherty, who figures to command more attention. The right-hander is not in the same tier as Burnes but he is a class above any of the remaining starters on the market.
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