The Raptors’ season is going as planned: some good development for their younger players, plenty of competitive losses and some reasonable draft lottery odds.
For a minute last week, it looked like they might be headed for full-blown tank mode when Scottie Barnes left Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks with a nasty looking ankle sprain, but the team’s star was able to go through a light workout Sunday with no consequences. There is optimism the Raptors could have their best player back in the lineup later this week.
In the meantime, the NBA’s trade season has started.
The deadline doesn’t arrive until Feb. 6, but Sunday marked the semi-official ‘open’ of the market, if only because it’s the date when the majority of the players who signed contracts in the off-season are eligible to be traded.
Where do the Raptors fit in?
Well, first of all what a difference from the past two seasons, when the Raptors were probably at the fulcrum of more trade discussions than any team in the NBA as they tried to gauge the feasibility of moving forward by meshing their Fred VanVleet-Pascal Siakam-OG Anunoby core with Barnes or going all-in on a Barnes-centred rebuild and moving on from their trio of championship-tested young vets. We know how that worked out, eventually.
But even now that they’re rebuilding around Barnes, there are moves – or at least potential moves – to consider. For the moment, the Raptors are all about developing young talent or acquiring future assets. But for a young team, the Raptors do have a reasonable collection of useful veterans on reasonable contracts that could be of interest to teams further along in the competitive cycle.
How likely is it that the Raptors are to be in the mix? Your mileage might vary there.
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Things got moving quickly as old friend Dennis Schroder was traded by the Brooklyn Nets to the Golden State Warriors for De’Anthony Melton, and the flailing Indiana Pacers acquired Thomas Bryant from the Miami Heat to shore up their centre depth.
Most moves typically are made closer to the deadline, but there’s an argument that deals could come sooner than later. Since the latest collective bargaining agreement came into effect in 2023, there is far less fluidity in the league’s financial ecosystem, with teams being hemmed in by various means to prevent the league’s deepest pocketed or most ambitious owners – that’s you, multi-billionaire Steve Ballmer of the Los Angeles Clippers – from spending with no limit while regular old billionaires sit on their wallets.
You don’t need to fully grasp the nuances of terms like ‘repeater tax’ and ‘second apron’ and ‘hard capped’ and others that get tossed around this time of year, but only know that the net result is more teams have more restrictions when it comes to making trades, and even where deals can get maneuvered, the appetite for taking on big money on longer deals is stifled, because taking on that player now – while beneficial – has to considered against the consequences of having that player’s money on the books in subsequent years.
This is why Zach LaVine – who will be in Toronto on Monday night as the Raptors host the Chicago Bulls and who has a long track record as one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers — has been stalled in purgatory on a team that would love to move him and boost its rebuild. Teams might love his scoring and shooting, but the remaining two years and $95 million on his deal is a huge deterrent, given he projects as a third option offensively on a championship hopeful but is a defensive liability with a checkered injury history.
Anyway, point being that with more teams dealing with more restrictions, it might make sense for those that are truly motivated to get their work done early rather than be without a chair when the music stops.
Here are my thoughts, for what they’re worth, on the Raptors that could find themselves checking their phones over the next weeks:
Jakob Poeltl
Amazingly, the Austrian big man is still just 29 years old. He’s got two years and $39 million left on is deal after this season but does have a player option on the final year, 2026-27.
At his age and his number, I believe the sources I’ve talked with who predict he’s more likely to be part of the Raptors’ bounce-back next season and beyond rather than dangled at the trade deadline for whatever combination of young talent and draft assets a rebuilding team might be hunting for. With Barnes and Immanuel Quickley already on long-term deals, it’s hard to imagine the Raptors having another, um, lottery-focused season a year from now. The goal is to swoop in and get lucky in the lottery this summer and hopefully start pushing to get back into contention a pretty shaky Eastern Conference.
Poeltl would help that cause next year and beyond. But here’s where things might get interesting: Poeltl will be both extension eligible this summer – he can tack on another three years to his existing deal at a number that would start at about $27.3 million per season – and be a year from free agency. If you were representing Poeltl, wouldn’t you want some kind of assurance that the Raptors are seriously interested in getting an extension done next summer as proof he’s part of their long-term vision? And if the answer is ‘no’ or ‘let’s wait and see’, might you begin to look seriously at finding a team at the trade deadline that would see Poeltl as a missing piece on a team hoping to win now?
Complicating things is that the market for centres – especially those that don’t spread the floor offensively or shoot free throws particularly well – is a little crowded at the moment, with Nikola Vucevic, Jonas Valanciunas, Robert Williams and Deandre Ayton just some of the names that will be popping up. Poeltl is probably the best out of those options, but teams do have options, which means the Raptors likely won’t expect a king’s ransom even if they do decide to make a trade. And as soon as he’s gone, the Raptors will be in the market for a quality big to anchor their team going forward. All of which says to me I think it’s more likely Poeltl stays than gets traded.
Chris Boucher
The lanky Montrealer has shown some nice glimpses this season, but as the roster has gotten healthier, Boucher is back where he was a season ago: on the fringes of Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic’s rotation. Given he turns 32 in January and is in the last year of his contract, it’s hard to imagine the Raptors standing in the way of a Boucher trade.
Making it that much more likely is that his $10.8 million salary fits neatly for various trade exceptions, so the market is potentially a bit wider for him than it might be otherwise. The flip side is that the NBA has known about Boucher being available for about a year now, and as one Eastern Conference executive said to me the other day: “if there was big demand, he wouldn’t be on the Raptors.”
That said, he’s healthy, durable, can shoot it a little bit, is fearless, and can still turn a game upside down like few others. For the price of a future second-round pick he’s hardly a gamble for a team trying to squeeze its way into the post-season or secure a home seed. I’ll miss the guy if he goes.
Bruce Brown
It’s safe to say that when Brown does take the floor for the Raptors, he’ll be in excellent shape. The 28-year-old has been out of action since having knee surgery in September but has been day-to-day for nearly three weeks as he ‘reconditions’ for game action.
Given that – by his own admission – he was a shadow of himself last season as he struggled with knee pain, so who knows what he’ll look like when he finally does take the floor. But there is plenty of time for Brown to find his game before the trade deadline. Still, it’s unlikely that he’ll generate a huge return, both given his lack of court time in the past 10 months and the fact he’s earning $23.5 million this season.
Conceivably, the Raptors could use Brown’s contract as part of a trade to take on some longer-term money where a team is trying to shed salary, but that’s been an option since the Toronto acquired Brown last January, and nothing has materialized. In the meantime, the Raptors have Barnes and Quickley on long-term deals and need to be careful about taking on big contracts themselves. As well indications from Brown and team sources are that he’s bought in to what the Raptors are trying to build and wants to part of the process going forward.
Given his next contract will be considerably cheaper than this one and that he’s just 28, perhaps the Raptors keep him in the mix and even re-sign him in the summer. He could be a useful piece if the Raptors end up getting a quality prospect in the draft and want to pivot to competing again next season. In any case, his trade value can only go up from here.
Kelly Olynyk
The skilled Canadian big man was in the midst of an excellent season when the Raptors acquired him as part of the trade that also brought Ochai Agbaji to Toronto.
He was averaging 8.1 assists, 5.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists in just 20 minutes a game with career-best shooting efficiency for a rebuilding Utah Jazz team that was more competitive than it wanted to be.
But here’s the thing: while Olynyk was rumoured to be a possible trade target for a number of playoff teams looking for a skilled play-making big to bolster their bench unit, he ended up in Toronto, and that was when he was a pending free agent. Olynyk is still rounding into shape after missing the first 23 games of the season with a back problem, but even presuming he returns to the form he showed last season, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a significant market for the 33-year-old who now has another year and $13.4 million on the contract extension he signed after joining the Raptors last season, and who can struggle defensively at this stage.
His $12.8-million salary for this season does – as in Boucher’s case – come in just under the full taxpayer mid-level exception slot of $12.82, which broadens his market a little bit. But the remaining year on his deal might give teams pause.
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