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Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Analyzing the impact of Winnipeg’s Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi line

The Winnipeg Jets were dealt a significant blow last week when top scorer Kyle Connor suffered a knee injury that will keep him out of the lineup for at least the next month and a half.

Connor was on pace for a career-high 53 goals at the time of the injury, and no one else on the Jets possesses his elite scoring ability.

Although Connor is irreplaceable, coach Rick Bowness seems to have found a combination that can keep the Jets afloat offensively while Connor recovers. Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele and Gabe Vilardi have been a dominant force over the past four games, controlling 75.8 per cent of expected goals at even strength.


Ehlers has long been a favourite of the analytics community. He is one of the most dynamic skaters in the NHL, ranking fifth out of 425 qualified forwards (minimum 100 minutes) with 6.08 offensive-zone carry-ins per 20 minutes at 5-on-5. Six of Ehlers’ 10 total goals this season have come off the rush.


The Danish forward is also a highly underrated playmaker. At 5-on-5, Ehlers is third in completed offensive zone passes off the rush, seventh in completed slot passes and eighth in completed offensive zone east-west passes per 20 at his position.

“This is the best he’s played because he’s healthy — he’s 100 per cent healthy,” Bowness told reporters. “When he’s skating like that, he’s elite. It’s elite speed, skills. Obviously hockey IQ. You love to watch him play.”

Vilardi, who recently returned from a sprained MCL that sidelined him for 18 games, has scored five goals in his past five games, all at 5-on-5. Vilardi’s biggest contribution so far has been his ability to win puck battles in the attacking zone, sitting second among qualified forwards with 2.52 offensive zone wins per 20 at 5-on-5.


Scheifele remains the constant down the middle. The injuries to Vilardi and Connor have forced Scheifele to play with a number of different wingers, but that has not stopped him from creating scoring chances for himself and others at an impressive rate. Scheifele’s 10.6 offence-generating plays per 20 at 5-on-5 are tied for ninth among qualified forwards.

The Jets, who are 14-5-1 in their past 20 games, have banked enough points to withstand Connor’s absence for the time being. Even so, Winnipeg needs the Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi line to continue performing at a high level until Connor returns.

All stats via Sportlogiq


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