Alex Ovechkin is coming to life.
The Washington Capitals forward has now notched 11 points in his past 11 games, finally starting to get on track in what’s been mostly a miserable season.
This brings up an interesting conundrum if you’re rostering Ovechkin. Do you enjoy this uptick in play and keep him? Or is this the perfect time to move him?
If you’re looking at the glass half full, Ovechkin is shooting more and on pace for 281 shots now. That’s lower than his totals in recent years but still very good. Also, his shooting percentage is six per cent, which is under half of his career average. There’s reason to believe that will normalize a bit in the second half of the season and Ovechkin will start finding the back of the net a little more.
On the other hand, the argument for moving him is Ovechkin is 38 and has a lot of tough miles on his body. He has really slowed down, and the Capitals don’t look very strong this season. There’s really no one Ovechkin can play with that is an elite offensive talent that’s going to help him produce. It’s very possible this is the highest Ovechkin’s value is going to be this year and there will be no better time to trade him.
Ovechkin has been frustrating people all season, as he’s too good to drop and his value has been too low to trade, though this recent stretch is reason for hope. The All-Star break is the perfect time to broker a deal since you still have a few more days until Ovechkin hits the ice again. Perhaps there is someone in your league who has nostalgia for the Ovechkin of old and believes he can recapture his magic.
It could be now or never to swing a deal.
1. Quite possibly the biggest trade deadline piece is already off the market and there’s a lot to unpack. Elias Lindholm was shipped to the Vancouver Canucks, which should instantly boost his value. I’d guess he’s either going to be centering the top line with Elias Pettersson moving to the wing or the Canucks keep the Lotto Line together with Pettersson, JT Miller and Brock Boeser, and Lindholm centres line two.
Option one would be the best for Lindholm but either way, he’s likely going to be on the top power play for the eighth-ranked unit in the league. Any way you slice it, I expect he’ll score at a better rate than the 54-point pace he was on in Calgary.
If the Canucks do continue to load up the Lotto Line, Lindholm will benefit the likes of Ilya Mikheyev, Conor Garland, Pius Suter and others that are on his wing. They’ll have a legit centre to play with if Miller and Pettersson are together on a different line.
If you’ve been holding Lindholm all season waiting for a possible trade, this is a pretty good landing spot.
2. As far as the Calgary Flames go, Andrei Kuzmenko is the only piece they got back that should make an immediate fantasy impact this year. It’s very likely that this will help Kuzmenko, as he’ll almost certainly play in the Flames top six and get far more minutes than he did in Vancouver. Kuzmenko fell out of favour with Canucks coach Rick Tocchet, but he did notch 39 goals and 74 points only a year ago. He’s worth taking a shot on if he gets an increased role.
3. The Lindholm trade could be the first major domino to fall in the Flames house cleaning. Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin could eventually be on the move as well, which would ultimately make it tough on someone like Jacob Markstrom. The Calgary netminder has been strong this year for the most part despite an inconsistent team, but he’d be in really tough during the fantasy playoffs if the Flames start selling off more key players. He’d be hard to trust for wins and quality starts if he loses his top two defenders. Just something to monitor.
4. Those rostering William Nylander are probably wishing he still hadn’t signed a new contract. Since putting pen to paper, Nylander has been ice cold, as he’s been held off the scoresheet in seven of nine games.
Part of the issue is John Tavares. Nylander’s linemate has also been struggling, and the Toronto Maple Leafs power play hasn’t been that effective lately either. Both of those things shouldn’t last forever, but Nylander also doesn’t look as dominant as he did earlier in the year and he isn’t driving the net like he typically does. Hopefully, he will come back recharged after the break.
5. If you’re debating on what to do with Cam Talbot, you should keep Ilya Samsonov’s recent resurgence in mind. You’d be completely justified in dropping Talbot, but we’ve seen a number of goalies this year turn it on and off like a light switch. In addition to Samsonov, Stuart Skinner and Antti Raanta were written off earlier this year as well, only to bounce back and be relevant once again. Samsonov, Raanta and Skinner had the benefit of a strong team in front of them, just like Talbot does.
There’s also a new coach bump now to consider as Jim Hiller takes over behind the bench. Hiller is a former assistant to Barry Trotz, so hopefully for Talbot’s sake, some of Trotz’s strong defensive structure rubbed off on Hiller.
6. Even with William Karlsson being activated off injured reserve, I think Nicolas Roy is still a hold. Roy had eight points in four games last week, and his line with Jonathan Marchessault and Ivan Barbashev is really clicking. I don’t see the Vegas Golden Knights breaking them up until Jack Eichel returns.
7. Don’t look now, but Jordan Eberle has nine points in his past seven games. Eberle is widely available, though the Seattle Kraken only play once next week, making it less than ideal to add him right now. Keep Eberle on your radar for the following week.
8. Joey Daccord has now started 21 of the past 23 games for the Kraken. That’s an incredible pace, and Daccord’s numbers really haven’t slipped at all. There’s no doubt Daccord has turned out to be the best Zero G option this season and it’s not particularly close.
9. One of the more intriguing storylines in the second half of the season is if Jake Guentzel will be traded. A pending UFA this summer, Guentzel could get moved if the Pittsburgh Penguins plan to rebuild. Guentzel is on pace for a career-high 87 points this season, so a move would be risky for his value. He could land with a stronger team, but it’s hard to imagine a better spot for Guentzel than playing next to Sidney Crosby.
10. Based on his incredible 2022-23, I don’t think anyone rostering Erik Karlsson is particularly happy with the way things have gone for him in Pittsburgh. Karlsson has at least been better lately, though, recording 11 points in 11 games, which included a 10-game point streak.
One thing about Karlsson’s struggles that’s so bewildering is that the Pens have the league’s 31st-ranked power play. With Karlsson, Crosby, Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin, you’d expect Pittsburgh would at least be a top-15 team with the man advantage. If the Penguins have any hope for the playoffs, I think Karlsson is going to have to continue to score at this pace and their power play is going to have to improve mightily.
11. I wonder if Anthony Mantha could be a tempting option for a team to acquire at the deadline that’s looking for scoring. He’s on an expiring contract and has 15 goals this season while averaging almost two shots per game. Mantha’s had consistency issues and is tough to trust, but in a small sample size in the top six on a better team, he could become fantasy-relevant.
12. Ryan O’Reilly appears to be hitting a wall. O’Reilly has just two points in his past five games, and he’s been held off the scoresheet in seven of his last nine. He had really cooled off offensively the last few years, so the pace he started 2023-24 at seemed unsustainable. We’ll see if he can bounce back after the break, but it’s possible O’Reilly was a good sell-high candidate earlier in the season.
13. You can’t be too excited if you’ve invested in some young Columbus Blue Jackets in a dynasty or keeper league. Most concerning would be David Jiricek, who wasn’t pleased about getting sent to the AHL after being a frequent scratch of late. The former sixth-overall pick is an elite talent that you’d think could benefit from some more minutes in the NHL on a team that’s desperate for skill. It’s still early in his development, but I’m not sure the Blue Jackets are the ideal team to be developing players that you have long-term plans for on your keeper roster.
14. Frederik Andersen is back on the ice for some conditioning. It’s still unclear when he may return, but this is at least a glimmer of hope that he’ll make it back at some point during the fantasy hockey season. If he’s been dropped in your league and you have the roster space, it might be a good idea to grab him for a stash to see how this turns out. It’s a low-risk move and we all know how valuable Carolina Hurricanes goalies can be.
15. Next week’s schedule is a little all over the place, as only three teams play four times and there are a bunch of squads that play just twice or even only once. Two teams that play four games are Colorado and Vancouver, and Logan O’Connor of the Avalanche has five goals in his past three games after getting a shot in the top six, so it’s the perfect time to give him a short-term look.
I also mentioned Pius Suter last week and now would’ve been the perfect time to stream him, but the Lindholm trade has thrown a wrench into that. It’s likely Suter gets bumped off the top power play, so you may want to look elsewhere for an addition to your roster next week.
If you do decide to drop the aforementioned Talbot, now might be the time. The Los Angeles Kings only have one game, so there are probably more efficient options available. I can see arguments for both dropping or keeping him, you just have to do what’s best for your roster.
16. A nice multi-point game for Shane Pinto while playing over 19 minutes in his final outing before the break. He looks like he’s starting to get up to speed and playing on the Ottawa Senators top power play. I’m not sure I’d race out to grab Pinto right away until we see a little more consistent production from him, but keep him on your watch list.
17. Unfortunately for the Sens, Jake Sanderson left the aforementioned game with an injury and didn’t return. Ottawa doesn’t play again until Saturday, so it’s possible Sanderson may be ready to go. If he isn’t though, Thomas Chabot or Jakob Chychrun would get a bump up to the top power-play unit.
18. You won’t find many opportunities to roster a San Jose Sharks skater this season, though William Eklund is making a good case for it right now. He’s recorded five points in his past three games and has played over 20 minutes in his last two contests.
The problem? San Jose doesn’t play again until Feb. 14, and its first game back is against a very stingy Winnipeg squad. It might not be the most ideal time to grab Eklund, but I think he’s going to have value in certain situations as a streamer during the second half.
19. Tyler Seguin is flying a bit under the radar this year with all the emerging talent the Dallas Stars boast. Seguin is on pace for 65 points, his best year by a mile since 2018-19, and he could get to 200 shots as well.
Unfortunately, his numbers in the hit column have dipped, however. Still, if I was a fantasy team making a playoff push, Seguin would be someone I’d target that may not cost you a ton but could pay big dividends.
20. Sean Monahan was also on the move this weekend, heading to the Winnipeg Jets. This should help Monahan at even strength because I imagine he’ll play with Cole Perfetti and Nik Ehlers on the second line, but will he get enough time on the top power play? Nearly half of Monahan’s 35 points this season have come with the man advantage and he averaged 3:31 per game on the power play with Montreal.
He may get a similar deployment in Winnipeg, but he’ll have to beat out Gabriel Vilardi or Ehlers for that spot. It won’t be easy.
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