MONTREAL — Might as well dive in immediately.
Thanks for all the questions!
I don’t think there’s any question the Canadiens will target a forward, and don’t be surprised if they still get the best player available in doing so wherever they land.
Also, don’t be surprised if that forward/best player available is acquired by trading a pick between five and nine.
It doesn’t have to go that way. Acknowledging that the top 10 of the 2024 class is defence-heavy, there are still several forwards who’ll be appealing enough for the Canadiens to stick and pick should they land in that range.
But if they feel there’s a better one available to them through trade, I don’t think they’ll have too much pause about moving the pick for him.
These questions all go together, and all of them give me a chance to go deep on the decision the Canadiens are facing with Sean Monahan.
Let’s start with the first of the last two, which both came from Massimo.
In the simplest terms, it would take a first-round pick for Kent Hughes to trade Monahan.
Is there a world where Hughes would accept a trade that offered him a really good prospect instead? Perhaps.
But the asset value of a first-round pick would probably be most appealing. Think about the first question I answered for this mailbag, think about the trades Hughes made for Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook at the last two drafts, and you can understand why that’s the ultimate prize for dealing Monahan.
Cameron’s not completely off suggesting Monahan would’ve probably already been traded by now had Hughes been offered a first, but there’s some nuance to consider on that front.
What I gathered speaking with sources around the league in the days leading up to this bye week was that, while there’s been plenty of chatter in the market, most teams have been waiting to get to the break to start really engaging in the type of talk that leads to formal offers getting lobbed back and forth. Pro scouting meetings have all been conducted, and most targets have been identified, but we’ve only now reached a point where something that would actually require serious consideration could come across any given GM’s desk.
There are some exceptions, naturally. A couple of teams with urgency to fill obvious needs have probably engaged more deeply than most.
But, as is always the case, no one really wants to show their cards too early unless they absolutely have to.
Specific to Monahan’s case: Even if a team had seen him as a perfect fit two weeks ago, they’d have been bidding against themselves in making their best offer then. And even if they had wanted to get a jump on the market for him, they would’ve had to overplay their hand for where he was at then versus where’s he’s at now (he’s put up 11 points over his last seven games).
On the other side of the table, if Hughes had wanted to move Monahan as early as two weeks ago to take advantage of his value while he was healthy, he’d have only been handicapping himself prodding potential suitors in an underdeveloped market.
This is a game of Chicken, and everyone has a different threshold as to when it’s the best time for them to swerve off course.
The most logical time for Hughes is after the deadline passes.
Actually, if you think about it, the only time for him to swerve would be at 3:00 p.m. ET on Mar. 8. If what the GM is looking for isn’t offered by 2:59 p.m., then the real negotiation to keep the pending UFA with the Canadiens beyond this season starts a minute later.
Not that Hughes won’t have some semblance of what it might cost to keep Monahan beyond the end of the season by then. He will.
But Monahan’s value is a moving target.
Consider this: One of the main reasons to trade Monahan right now is that he has earned term with the way he has played this season. He has bookended a 10-game slide in early November, over which he produced just one point, with really consistent play at both ends of the rink. As a result, he’s produced 34 points in 39 games, kept his faceoff percentage above 55, served as a dangerous bumper on the power play and as an effective forward on the penalty kill, all while averaging close to 19 minutes per game. It’s a repeat of the performance he offered last season by putting up 17 points in 25 games, which is impressive considering he had groin surgery in between.
All of that should be impressive enough to get Monahan a longer deal than the one he’s currently on from just about any interested team. You’d think, even with his exhaustively long injury history, it’s setting him up to possibly secure a lucrative contract for the next three-to-five years.
Monahan has to be thinking it, so he shouldn’t be rushing to deal with Hughes.
Hughes shouldn’t be rushing, either.
If the GM tries to move Monahan but can’t get more than a second-round pick between now and the deadline, Monahan’s belief he could get three, four, or even five years on the open market this coming summer would probably diminish. He’d have to at least consider that if no one was willing to pay as much as a first for what he’s done over his last 75 games, perhaps no one would be willing to give him more than two years on a new contract.
And if Hughes can’t trade Monahan for more than a second, I don’t think he’d have much — if any — pause about keeping the 29-year-old for two more seasons.
But neither him nor Monahan can really consider that until everyone has a better sense of the player’s market value, which will only be further established between now and Mar. 8.
Once it is, my bet is both Hughes and Monahan end up happy.
Hughes will because I believe what he’ll be looking for in a trade will be offered, not only because there are enough teams in need of what the player brings (especially at just $2 million prorated — 50 per cent of which can be retained by Montreal), but also because he wouldn’t even need to play full-time in an acquiring team’s top-six to necessarily be worth a first-round pick to that team.
Maybe some teams who see Monahan purely as a third-line centre would balk at that price, but the amount of competition there will be for the player makes it much more likely at least one team won’t.
Hey, that’s just my opinion, but any of you doubting it are free to look up recent trade deadline history and scour the lengthy list of bottom-six forwards who garnered first-round picks without even producing at Monahan’s level.
What I do know is that some interest in Monahan is already established. I know of three teams who are absolutely intrigued by the possibility of adding him, and that’s not even counting the New York Rangers, whom Elliotte Friedman labeled as interested.
Several more could bite here and, when one does, it will make Monahan very happy.
He’s a veteran of 730 regular-season games but has played just 30 in the playoffs since entering the league in 2013. He is hungry for a chance to win.
And any team offering Monahan that opportunity is also giving him the best chance he’ll have to build on the value he’s already established this season. He’ll have to capitalize to strike big in free agency, but it’s unquestionably a better one than the Canadiens can offer him on a team that will likely only be sinking further down the standings between now and the end of the season.
They’ll leave the door open to him to return on a deal that makes sense for them, but they’ll have to live with the probability he never walks through it.
A first-round pick would help them do that.
Hi Kevin,
My thoughts on how this plays out is Gallagher continues to be a Montreal Canadien for the foreseeable future.
You spelled it out — he’s 31, he’s not the same player he once was, and (as things are currently structured) he’ll make the third-highest salary on the team for each of the next three years. So, until he gets closer than this to the end of his contract, there isn’t much to speculate on.
I still believe Gallagher can provide value. It may never be quite as high as anyone wants it to be in relation to what he’s paid, but I still see signs he can provide enough to not make his contract as problematic as it could be.
The Canadiens have to hope that proves to be true over the next year or two.
If it does, that could open up some options. If it doesn’t, it might get to a point where they have to contemplate an option they’d prefer not to exercise — a buyout.
That would be a sad way for Gallagher’s tenure with the Canadiens to end, especially considering how much he’s given of himself to the franchise. It would be a bad way, too, considering the cap implications.
But one way or another, we’re just not there yet, so I don’t have deeper thoughts on how things play out beyond Gallagher doing whatever he can to seize the opportunity he has to keep finding ways to contribute to the Canadiens.
Is the presumption here that Guhle’s losing valuable development time on the left side because he’s currently playing the right?
If it is, I suppose it’s reasonable.
But I don’t think Guhle succeeding on the right side — and he is — will impede him from becoming an excellent defenceman in this league. If anything, I think he’s only adding to his bag of tricks.
And it’s not like the 22-year-old is going to suddenly forget how to play on the side he’s played on for most his life after spending a sample of games away from it.
We shouldn’t forget at least two of the reasons Guhle is on the right, anyway. First, it helps coach Martin St. Louis maintain a meritocracy on defence by playing Guhle and Mike Matheson the minutes they should play as the team’s top defencemen. Second, it helps St. Louis put his best two skaters against the best and fastest lines of top-heavy teams.
That’s mainly how Guhle has been used on the right side, and I don’t see that as something hindering his development.
I can’t say I fully see it as the opposite of that, but still, I don’t know if you should be as concerned about it as you appear to be.
Guhle will be back on his natural side enough between now and the end of the season, and it’s still the plan to have him there long-term.
Might as well finish where we started, with questions about targeting a forward at the draft.
I have no doubt the Canadiens will absolutely consider Demidov, as well as some other appealing forwards who might be available to them near the top of the order.
But if Zegras actually does become available, I wonder how many other teams would be willing to offer Anaheim a top-10 pick to acquire him.
That’s what Hughes would need to find out before contemplating moving his as the centrepiece of a trade that would give the Ducks two and bring Zegras to Montreal.
I think that’s one of a few options he’d have to consider, regardless, to potentially get this player.
But Hughes still has to proceed with some caution.
Any GM that’s into Zegras would have to because it would certainly be a red flag if the Ducks were willing to move a forward of his ability while knowing their biggest need is still at forward.
Another thing that could keep any acquiring team from giving up a ransom would be taking on the risk of watching Zegras force his way out of their organization in 2026, when he holds arbitration rights and is a year away from unrestricted free agency.
Maybe ransom is too strong a word here, but the Ducks aren’t just going to give Zegras away. Not after he posted 48 goals and 126 points in his first 156 NHL games, and not even after he had only four goals and seven points in 20 games this season.
A broken ankle that could sideline Zegras for another six weeks shouldn’t affect much, either, because it’s highly unlikely he goes anywhere before the summer.
Maybe Zegras doesn’t go anywhere at all after returning to play for the Ducks. Maybe he plays great and answers whatever questions they might have about him and all this trade talk evaporates.
But if the Ducks decide they’re open to shipping Zegras out of Anaheim this summer, I think they’d be wise to call Hughes.
GM Pat Verbeek might even be wiser to wait for Hughes to call him.
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