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Friday, January 26, 2024

Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: What’s the future for Maple Leafs’ goalie rotation?

Patrick Roy taking over the New York Islanders came with a sigh of relief from the fantasy hockey community.

The Isles have been one of the more frustrating teams this season, especially when it comes to Ilya Sorokin. Typically one of the best fantasy options in the league, Sorokin’s save percentage has been decent all year but his goals against average is above three. It’s a sign of a goalie that’s facing too many shots and quality chances. 

Ideally for those rostering Sorokin, Roy can change all that by helping New York in its own zone. Roy took over a team ranked 31st in shots allowed per game, barely ahead of the lowly San Jose Sharks. So far, in three games under Roy, they haven’t improved much. The Isles gave up 43 shots to the Dallas Stars in Roy’s first game and then 27 to the Vegas Golden Knights in game number two, and 26 to the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. If they can consistently stay around that 26-27 shot mark, it would be a big improvement and probably help Sorokin’s numbers and ease his workload. 

One thing I’d bet on, though, is one of the greatest goaltenders ever isn’t going to sit idly by and watch Sorokin continually get peppered with shots. He’s going to do everything in his power to fix it, but it’s going to take time. 

Let’s get to your questions:

If you can survive with Pytor Kochetkov on IR, I’d probably drop Filip Gustavsson. He’s having a tough year and on the weakest team of the goalies you have listed. I don’t think the Minnesota Wild are going to help him very much and Gustavsson will struggle to pick up wins. The other three have far more upside.

Goalie splits are always tough to predict and we’ve got two really different situations here. Ville Husso wasn’t playing particularly well for the Detroit Red Wings, while Joseph Woll was very solid. So, I think Husso will have to somewhat earn his starts when he returns, as Alex Lyon has been great for the most part and the Wings are in a playoff race. I’m sure Detroit will roll with the hot hand and that’s been Lyon this year.

In Toronto, it’s been a different story, as the Maple Leafs are anxiously awaiting Woll’s return. Martin Jones has played admirably but he seems to be hitting a wall and Ilya Samsonov has had more lows than highs in the crease, though he’s been excellent lately. I’d guess the Leafs are hoping Woll returns to form and solidifies their net once again. 

The more interesting aspect of this is who will the number two behind Woll be? It looked like it would certainly be Jones, but now Samsonov has started to find his game and has three solid starts in a row, including a spectacular shutout against the Winnipeg Jets. If Samsonov can continue to play at this level, he’s definitely going to work his way into more of a rotation when Woll gets back. That said, I think Woll would still be the goalie to roster in Toronto, but the Leafs won’t want to overwork him coming back off an injury, so you’d think Samsonov should at least get one game a week as long as his play doesn’t dip too much. 

I think both will have good value until Jack Eichel and William Karlsson return. Once they come back, Nicolas Roy will likely move back down to the bottom six and Pavel Dorofeyev could lose his spot on power play one. That said, both Roy and Dorofeyev are good streamers for the time being, as it sounds like Karlsson won’t be back until after the all-star break and Eichel is going to be out for a while. You can always use them for now and then see where things are at when Vegas has a fully healthy forward group.

I’m still on the Mason McTavish bandwagon. I think he lost a bit of momentum with the injury he dealt with earlier in the season, but long term, McTavish should be a great option. Schedules will vary week-to-week but I would watch and see if Wyatt Johnston gains RW eligibility. He’s looked great on that top Dallas Stars line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz.

He should be, given his ability to fill the hits column and his good deployment, but just keep a few things in mind with Sam Bennett. He’s not a huge point producer and isn’t on the Florida Panthers top power play, so just make sure you’re getting enough offence from other areas of your roster and don’t give up a ton for him. Bennett still has some offensive upside, though he’s going to be streaky on the scoresheet.

Definitely. Samuel Ersson is having a strong season for the most part and with Carter Hart away from the team, he’s going to play a lot more. Not to mention John Tortorella’s teams are typically very helpful to goalies and the Philadelphia Flyers are playing better than expected this year. If you need help in net, Ersson is a good fit.

It never hurts to see what’s out there in a trade, but I’d probably keep Luke Hughes for now. Dougie Hamilton is likely going to miss the majority of the fantasy hockey season if not all of it, leaving Hughes as a good option to get big minutes. I know he’s been quieter lately, but ups and downs are expected with any rookie.

Plus, when Jack Hughes gets back it’s going to really help him, especially on the power play.

In a one-year league, you could absolutely consider something like this for Sean Durzi. Mo Seider only has two points in 14 games, isn’t getting top power play time and his offensive zone starts have been trending down since his rookie campaign. In a keeper league you may want to think differently, but for the rest of the season I don’t see Seider outperforming someone like Durzi.

Based on these names, I’m guessing you’re looking for a blocked shot specialist. They’re all pretty comparable, but I’d go with Esa Lindell because I think he has the most upside for offence. 

As for Alex Ovechkin, even with a big down year, dropping seems a little extreme until you’ve at least explored the trade market. I’d see if someone is willing to buy low for a player that fits one of the positional needs you’re looking for.

He may already be there. The Wild have some good defensemen, but not many with the ability to play in all situations and provide the offence that Brock Faber does. Jared Spurgeon is one that could challenge Faber for key minutes on the power play next year, but he’s 34 and has battled injuries. The first Minnesota defenceman off the board next season in fantasy drafts is probably going to be Faber.

For this year I’d say McTavish, though long term I’d go with Leo Carlsson. I think Carlsson is the higher end talent and should be more valuable offensively than McTavish as the years go on. This season, though, Carlsson has that load management thing going on and may miss a game here and there, and he doesn’t provide much in the way of peripheral stats right now. McTavish has been good for penalty minutes in 2023-24 if your league counts those.

I talked about Seider earlier but I have a similar answer about Aaron Ekblad. In one-year leagues I don’t think Ekblad is a must hold. He’s really only had that one fantasy relevant season a couple of years ago, so there very well could be better options available on waivers or at least some defenceman playing better right now.

I’d probably go with Mattias Ekholm and Jamie Drysdale. There’s more opportunity for someone like Drysdale to work his way onto PP1 and he has more offensive upside than the other two. I think Ekholm and Hampus Lindholm are very comparable, but Ekholm might get a few more points being on the ice frequently with the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Ekholm is also more valuable for hits.

Artturi Lehkonen will certainly have value if he can solidify a spot again in the Colorado Avalanche top six, but I wouldn’t give up someone like Drake Batherson for him just yet. See how things shake out first, as Lehkonen has missed a ton of time and it’s probably going to take him a while to get back up to speed. The Avs top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Jonathan Drouin has also been very good, so Colorado may not want to break them up. Without playing with Rantanen or MacKinnon, I don’t think Lehkonen will have more value than Batherson.

I see no red flags as far as Nico Hischier is concerned. Right now, he’s an excellent option on the New Jersey Devils top line with Jack Hughes out and he’s been putting up points of late. Even when Hughes returns, Hischier should still land in the top six with a lot of talent around him. I will say he’s a better option for points leagues than multi-cat, though.

It’s a very realistic possibility Yaroslav Askarov could be in the NHL next year. This is his second strong season in the AHL and current Nashville Predators backup Kevin Lankinen’s contract is expiring after this year. It would also make sense to see what they have in Askarov before deciding on what to do with Juuse Saros and his contract. Saros will need an extension next year but the Preds could opt to trade him for a haul if they’re rebuilding and they think Askarov is ready.

Definitely Jakob Chychrun. Tyson Barrie has had a really tough year and he’s playing behind Roman Josi. Chychrun is the far better option and is getting a lot more ice time.


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